Global Education Expectations. Q1 2019 Executive Panel

806 executives from 63 countries report an overall positive short-term outlook for education but most expect sector disruption by 2025. Emerging markets expect the highest levels of short-term growth.

Education Intelligence Unit

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May 16, 2019

Respondents report an overall positive short-term outlook for education but most expect sector disruption by 2025. Emerging markets expect the highest levels of short-term growth.

806 executives, policy-makers, academics, entrepreneurs and investors from our Global Executive Panel shared their expectations on the outlook for education in their country, their category and institution. This is the first survey of HolonIQ’s longitudinal study of the state of global education.

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1. Disruption Expected.

The vast majority of respondents expect major disruption to occur by 2025. The emerging markets of Africa and LATAM are more conservative about significant change, whereas all other regions expect disruption to their market within six years.

By sector, more respondents from corporate training expect disruption by 2030, most likely due to lighter regulatory constraints, talent shortages and urgent upskilling requirements. However, even in more heavily regulated environments, over 80% of respondents expect disruption by 2025.

Disruption by sector

2. Market Conditions.

Respondents were asked to assess market conditions such as the state of education policy, regulation, opportunities and risks, enrolments and growth for their local market compared with six months ago and their expectations in the next six months.

Respondents from Asia, Oceania and to a lesser extent Europe reported large positive changes in conditions in the last six months and also expect positive changes across the next six months. More than half of Asia and Oceania respondents expect moderate and substantial positive changes in the next half year, while North American respondents report relatively stable conditions with 30% indicating positive changes over the prior and next 6 months.

Panel quote

3. Opportunities for Growth.

Regionally, Africa and LATAM identified their existing markets as the key opportunity, which is not surprising given the size and youth of these populations. As might be expected for developed markets, operational improvements feature as a key growth opportunity.

Asia and Oceania had largest focus on new technologies as top priority for growth, Asia one of lowest on operational improvements while Oceania reported the highest level operational improvement focus. Respondents from North America identified the highest growth opportunity from new products and lowest from new technology.

Screenshot 2019-05-16 15.50.29
“The market is dynamic but highly fragmented. I expect leaders will emerge and consolidation will occur in the next 1-3 years”. Respondent, Oceania

4. Demand Estimates.

Those from Pre-K expect the lowest level of growth in demand with corporate training and lifelong learning expecting the highest levels, supporting the view that adult upskilling will continue to grow.

Similarly, 60% of Higher Education and Vocational respondents expect demand growth with approximately 10% of both expecting a decrease in demand. The majority of those in organizations under 500 employees are expecting an increase in customer/learner demand, however his falls to 40-45% for organizations between 500 and 10,000 employees and rises again to above 70% for those from organizations with greater than 10,000 employees.

Screenshot 2019-05-16 16.02.49
“Ongoing significant disruption across the world of work is creating new opportunities in the vocational and skills-based education markets”. Respondent, Europe
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