2025 Global Student Flows - US Outlook

Mapping the future of international education in the United States

Education Intelligence Unit

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August 6, 2025

International education remains one of the most dynamic, high-impact global systems of the modern era - a powerful force that delivers shared prosperity for learners, host nations, sending countries, and employers alike. In the United States, this force has long served as a cornerstone of economic strength, innovation, and global leadership.

Yet in 2025, America’s leadership in attracting global talent is no longer guaranteed. While international student demand for US education remains strong, the reality is that US policy choices, particularly around visa access and post-study work opportunities, now represent the most significant constraint to realizing this potential. Without urgent attention and reform, these bottlenecks risk undermining the United States’ competitiveness in an increasingly aggressive global race for talent.

This year’s report highlights this disconnect. Demand for a US education continues to rise, and yet, over one-quarter of a million potential students were denied entry in 2023 due to visa rejections. According to Shorelight’s research, students from key markets such as Nigeria, Ghana, and Bangladesh face rejection rates as high as 80%, not for lack of merit, but due to limited capacity and inconsistent adjudication.

This is not merely an administrative issue. It is a strategic one.

The opportunity cost of inaction is enormous. The United States already lags behind peer study destinations, Canada, the UK, and Australia, in establishing coordinated national strategies to attract and support international students.

US International Education Outlook

Download the 2025 Global Student Flows - US Outlook Report

While these countries face their own policy headwinds, they have long understood international education as a critical element of their national interest. The US, by contrast, has not yet delivered a comparable strategy at the federal level. There is still time to change that.

Our 2025 Outlook is optimistic, but conditional. It assumes the US leverages its unmatched academic ecosystem, its scale, and its strong post-study employment pathways, especially in STEM fields, to remain the top destination for global talent. But without reform, especially on visa processing and Optional Practical Training (OPT) stability, the US may again cede ground to more agile nations.

HolonIQ estimates international education is not just a $500B economic engine, it is a long- cycle, strategic asset. Students and families make decisions over years, not months. The policy decisions we make today - on access, affordability, and support - will shape the trajectory of global flows for the next decade and beyond.

The Global Student Flows initiative, now in its eighth edition and our third US-focused market outlook, offers the data and scenarios needed to inform those decisions. With gratitude to our partners at Shorelight, and to leaders across education, government, and industry, we look forward to working together to ensure the United States remains the most welcoming and effective destination for global learners.

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