Five Scenarios for the Future of Learning and Talent
The global education market is set to reach at least $10T by 2030 as population growth in developing markets fuels a massive expansion and technology drives unprecedented re-skilling and up-skilling in developed economies. The next decade will see an additional 350 million post secondary graduates and nearly 800 million more K12 graduates than today. Asia and Africa are the driving force behind the expansion. The world needs to add 1.5 million teachers per year on average, approaching 100 million in total in order to keep pace with the unprecedented changes ahead in education around the world.
Education in 2030 is a free 60 page report that deep dives through the four drivers of the global expansion in education and identifies 5 Scenarios for the Future of Learning and Talent. Methodology for developing the scenarios is explained and over 100 charts and tables are provided with sources and references for further research.
Emerging markets will continue to be the growth engine of the global economy. As these emerging countries develop their institutions, fostering social stability and strengthening their macroeconomic fundamentals, they will become more appealing places to work and live, attracting investment and talent.
The world's population grows by about 200,000 each day. We will likely add another 1 billion people by 2030 putting enormous pressure on current education models to scale effectively and sustainability.
There is great uncertainty about the future of work, the impact of automation and the most effective and efficient ways for society to develop human capital ahead of these impacts.
Artificial Intelligence, Machine Learning and Decentralized Blockchains are considered by many as both threats and opportunities to advancing human potential. The speed and mode of impact will fundamentally re-shape major aspects of the education system and perhaps event the way learning occurs.
Scenarios do not predict the future, but present snapshots of a range of possible futures. They offer a framework for interpreting personal experiences and the volume and complexity of information and opinion generated about the topic. Scenarios can raise sensitivity to early signals of emerging underlying trends. The five scenarios presented in this project offer possible outcomes based on how different combinations of key drivers may influence education and learning in the future.
In 2030 the world economy is showing steady growth, following a period of sluggish productivity in the previous ten years. Demographic trends in developed economies have dampened labor supply, however new cohorts of more educated workers from developing countries have now entered the global workforce and are contributing to improved productivity and global income equality.
Traditional education institutions remain the trusted source of learning and the most effective vehicle for jobs and prosperity. However, chronic skills shortages in advanced economies due to demographic change, automation and changing industry needs, which require the re-skilling of a vast number of displaced workers, has placed enormous pressure on traditional institutions, most of which are neither structured nor able to service these needs to the scale, at the speed, and in the way that learners expect.
In 2030, world economies have become increasingly integrated along regional lines. Significant demographic changes in the 10 years between 2020 – 2030 have impacted countries and regions differently, with developed nations challenged by an aging workforce and tapering economic growth, while developing countries, making up most of the world’s working population in 2030, need to enable education and jobs for their burgeoning populations. For each group, regional cooperation provides a way to support economic growth, achieve efficiencies, alleviate under- or over-supply of human capital, which has become a critical strategic asset of the twenty first century, while maintaining unique cultural and national identities.
Globalization has brought the world closer together in 2030, through the integration of international trade, technology, investment and human capital. Multilateral agreements and free market policies have removed barriers to international trade and a stable geopolitical environment fosters global competition and growth. Enabled by technology, there is an unprecedented interconnectedness among populations and the exchange of ideas and values among cultures. Political activity has lifted to the global level as intergovernmental organizations play a greater role in shaping international law, security, trade and commerce.
In 2030, the global ‘peer-to-peer’ economy has gone mainstream and is now an accepted way to live, work, learn and earn. Powered by declining transaction costs and ubiquitous connectivity, peer to peer exchange of goods and services has meant the disintermediation of the ‘institution’ in most industries. Rules governing the ‘old economy’ where efficiencies were gained through standardization and economies of scale no longer apply. Consumer confidence in major institutions is low and the decentralized network trades on trust and reliability. This ‘power shift’ from centralized to distributed models is underpinned by technology that supports trust based end-to-end transactions and changes in the role of citizens from consumers, to producers and creators.
The advancement and applications of artificial intelligence have delivered significant economic benefits to most countries in the world by 2030. As labour inputs have slowed in advanced economies, the importance of productivity in driving overall growth is now critical. Countries with skills and labour shortages have deployed AI technologies deeply into many industries, automating routine tasks and freeing human capital for more value adding activities. The resulting productivity gains from process automation, an AI-augmented labour force, and increased consumer demand for AI-enhanced products and services has contributed trillions of dollars to the global economy.