Global Education Risk Monitor. July 2019

503 education professionals from over 50 countries report lack of innovation, poor economic sustainability, teacher shortages, unequal access and escalating cost as the major risks to global education.

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The Global Education Risk Monitor tracks the likelihood of the most serious and pertinent risks the world of education faces over the next three to five years. The Q2 2019 baseline reveals major concerns around finding a sustainable economic model for education, securing greater equity of access, the rising cost and consequential student debt levels around the world.

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Global Risk Summary.

The table shows the global rank of each risk from highest to lowest average assessed on the likelihood of being realized (left column). The regional rank of each risk for the collective responses from that region are also shown. Risk ranks in red where also assessed by that region as “High”, ranks in Black assessed as “Moderate”. No risks where assessed globally or regionally as either Very High, Low or Very Low.

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#1. Political process inhibits evolution

Overall, respondents identify the #1 risk to global education is the political process preventing education from innovating. While regional differences are to be expected given the localized nature of government policy, ‘not innovating’ was identified across the board as critical risk in most regions of the world.

On average, all regions consider this item High Risk (75% Probability) and the number one risk in all regions except for Europe and Africa, which both rated at #2 and Asia, where government action was rated their fourth highest risk.

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#2. Europe flags teacher shortage risk

Europe identified teacher shortages and skills gap as their #1 risk with a significant relative different to western peers. Over 40% of respondents from Europe identified this as a very high risk (95% likelihood).

While all regions considered teacher shortages and teacher skills gap a high risk (75% likelihood). Asia, the Middle East and North America had between 30% and 40% considering teacher shortages and skills a very high risk.

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#3. Failure to adopt a sustainable model.

The threat to education from the traditional system failing to adopt sustainable economic models was ranked most highly in the developed economies of North America, Oceania and Europe, with different signals from those markets in a position to leapfrog, but still the #3 overall risk.

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