We have learnt so much sharing five scenarios for Education in 2030 in over 20 countries with more than 5,000 folks in the last six months. Last week we took a snapshot in Miami at the Center for Education Reform’s 25th Anniversary and what better occasion than to deep dive a little into how the Education-as-Usual scenario is measuring up.
Big Picture, with significant samples from over 50 countries, only 5% of respondents chose “Education-as-Usual” as their preferred scenario out of the five choices. However, on average the cohort estimated it was still 45% likely that “Education-as-Usual” is how 2030 will look when we get there.
If at this point you are wondering what the five scenarios are or have not yet read Education in 2030, you can either quickly dive into a 3-minute read of the scenario here or download the full report.
Estimating the probability of a scenario over 10 years from now is a big call and it wasn’t as simple as 50/50. The chart below shows the distribution of responses for the question “How likely is the following scenario for Education in 2030?”
You can see a generally even response with 5% difference between the two extremes of highly likely and highly unlikely and 3% difference between probably and probably not.
But the really interesting insights come out when we start to look at country and role probability assessments and preferences below that.
Respondents of the survey provided their role or the role that most closely resembles their role and the charts below break out responses across preference and probability by role.
The left-hand chart shows what percentage of respondents with that particular role, chose ‘Education-as-Usual’ as their preferred scenario out of the five choices for Education in 2030.
The right-hand charts shows the weighted average probability estimate by that role group for ‘Education-as-Usual in 2030’ as well.
It’s no surprise Entrepreneurs came in last on preference and teachers came in first at 14%. Having said that, the inverse is fascinating in that 85% of teachers preferred a scenario other than ‘Education-as-Usual’ which is perhaps not the impression we get through the media.
The probability estimate is also fascinating with investors and entrepreneurs at either end. With only a 9% spread between the cohorts estimates, investors are assessing ‘Education-as-Usual’ as the least likely of the peer group and ‘Entrepreneurs’ as the most likely.
The preference and probability profiles for role are repeated below but this time for the home country of the respondent.
The preference for ‘Education-as-Usual’ is fascinating. Finland tops the charts representing that of all countries, Finland has the highest appetite for ‘Education-as-Usual’ and India the lowest. Whilst there are four other scenarios, it’s important to think through the inverse as well. Even in Finland, 85% of respondents chose one of the other four scenarios for their preferred scenario in 2030 and in India 99% chose others.
The probability estimate is equally as fascinating by country with Canada assessing ‘Education-as-Usual’ as the least likely of the peer group and Finland assessing ‘Education-as-Usual’ as the most likely, quite high actually at 67%.
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